Petersburg, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

662
FXAK67 PAJK 052343
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 PM AKDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SHORT TERM...Showers primarily over the northern portion of the
panhandle and northeast gulf in the post frontal environment.
The showers activity over the southern half, is much less. A
developing wave moves from the north pacific and then curve north
through the eastern gulf and back to the north central gulf as it
weakens. The strongest winds will be as low passes by Buoy 46083
west of Cross Sound. Will likely see speeds up to 50 kt or so
near the low.

The main preciptiation focus will impact the southern half of the
panhandle. The front will be slow to move east across the southern
panhandle as the front moves north across the remainder of the
panhandle with 24 rainfall totals of 2-2.25 inches and roughly
half that for the northern panhandle area. Do not expect more
than just river rises, but will keep an eye on the status of
rainfall and river states.

Another issue will be near shore thunderstorm potential north of
Sitka this evening and more moving in across the gulf late Sunday
and Sunday night. Open cell storm might be over the water, but
expect that orographic lifting will assist in the updraft
potential.


.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...Big picture remains that
the entirety of the panhandle can expect widespread rain showers
through the beginning of next week with some isolated thunderstorms
possible, primarily for outer coastal communities from Sitka
northward to the Fairweather grounds. By Sunday the main low will be
weakening and meander over the gulf, with short wave features rotate
around it periodically giving fresh impulses of moisture. With the
ongoing widespread showers and overcast or occasionally broken
cloud cover, temperatures will remain seasonably cool with some
higher elevations, particularly the Klondike Highway, continuing
to see mixed precipitation. Minor snow accumulation will remain
likely in overnight hours with transition to a mix or all rain
during daytime hours. Otherwise the rest of the panhandle at sea
level will see crisp cold rain as snow levels range between 3000
and 4000 ft.

As mentioned above, these short wave features could lead to small
craft conditions for outer coastal waters. By early Tuesday, the
parent low is expected to meander into the eastern gulf before
turning back to the NW on Wednesday due to a weak ridge moving in
from the west. As the system gets closer to the outer coast, a
barrier jet could develop with small craft (likely), or possibly
near gale force winds developing along the NE gulf coastal waters.

Taking a peak into the crystal ball towards the latter half of
next week, unsettled weather will continue with another strong
storm entering the gulf next weekend with early signs of it being
a hefty rainmaker; more than our recent predominantly wind
impactful system. Stay up to date with the latest forecast for
further developments.

&&

.AVIATION...
For remainder of Saturday, rain showers with the potential for
embedded thunderstorms and small hail. Simply put, VFR conditions
on your flight route could drop to MVFR from SHRA and BR. Rain
showers come briefly to an end early Sunday morning before another
front moves in bringing MVFR and widespread RA, LLWS, and some
TS.

&&

.MARINE...A secondary low behind the early Saturday frontal band
moves north and curling to the north central gulf while developing.
The winds about the low will increase up to Strong gale force and
even small brief period of 50 to 55 kt winds as the low moves
west of Cross Sound toward Yakutat. Combined seas increase into
the mid teens for heights. Another issue will be near shore
thunderstorm potential north of Sitka this evening and more
moving in across the gulf late Sunday and Sunday night. Open cell
storm might be over the water, but expect that orographic lifting
will assist in the updraft potential.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Sunday afternoon for AKZ317 and AKZ318.
     Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ329.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ644-664.
     Gale Warning for PKZ053-641>643-651-652-661>663-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...AP

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